India predicted to surpass the US by 2030, new financial rankings suggest
The United States will be relegated to the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, with China taking the top spot and India in second place, according to predictions by a new financial rankings report.
A British financial services firm is predicting that China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in a decade’s time while India will assume second place.
This shift in global dominance was predicted by Standard Chartered, which unveils its rankings of the world’s ten largest economies each year.
It predicts that America will fall to third on the list behind the two Asian giants by 2030, according to Fox Business, and that the new global order will see current emerging markets occupy seven of the top ten spots.
According to the Daily Mail, while America is expected to trail behind China and India, Indonesia will vault into the fourth slot.
“Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies,” Standard Chartered economists write in their study.
The size of a country’s economy is determined by gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a period of time.
Standard Chartered predicts that Turkey will round out the top 5.
Brazil is the only Latin American country in the top 10. It is predicted to be the sixth largest economy by 2030, with a GDP of $8.6trillion.
Egypt is the only Middle Eastern country on the list. It is predicted to have the seventh largest economy with a GDP of $8.2trillion.
Russia is slated to be the eighth largest economy with a GDP of $7.9trillion.
Japan and Germany fall down in the rankings. The Asian giant finishes in ninth with a GDP of $7.2trillion while Germany rounds out the top 10 at $6.9trillion.
The countries that are currently in the top 10 – and which are predicted to fall out of the rankings – are the United Kingdom, Italy, France, and Canada.
India forecasts its economy will grow more than 7 percent in the current financial year ending in March, giving some relief to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who seeks a second term in national elections to be held by May.
Annual economic growth had fallen to a worse-than-expected 7.1 percent in the July-September quarter, from 8.2 percent in the previous quarter, dragged down by a slower consumer spending and farm growth, posing a risk to Modi who plans a populist budget to win back voters.
With the fall in global crude oil prices and strengthening of the rupee in recent weeks, the Modi administration plans to prop up rural demand through higher state spending and a financial package for farmers in the annual budget to be presented on February 1.
Gross domestic product is estimated to grow 7.2 percent in 2018/19, faster than a provisional 6.7 percent growth in 2017/18, Ministry of Statistics said in a statement.
Manufacturing is now forecast to grow 8.3 percent this fiscal year compared with 5.7 percent in the previous year.
Farm output may grow by 3.8 percent, up from 3.4 percent.
STANDARD CHARTERED’S TOP 10 ECONOMIES BY THE YEAR 2030
1. China – $64.2 trillion (nominal GPD)
2. India – $46.3 trillion
3. The United States – $31 trillion
4. Indonesia – $10.1 trillion
5. Turkey – $9.1 trillion
6. Brazil – $8.6 trillion
7. Egypt – $8.2 trillion
8. Russia – $7.9 trillion
9. Japan – $7.2 trillion
10. Germany – $6.9 trillion